Following the election, armchair analysts created a whirlwind of spin on the Internet; but, in the midst of all that digital noise, one can find substantive facts and analyses. Here are some:
Key facts:
1. More people voted for George W. Bush than for any other President in U.S. history.
2. More people voted for John Kerry than for any other opposing Presidential candidate in U.S. history.
good perspectives:
1. “The GOP built its electoral dominance over 40 years by building a massive, well-funded message, training, and media machine. [Progressives] started putting [theirs] together last year.” - Markos Moulitsas , founder, DailyKos.
2. “When Republicans are beaten, do they simply surrender their principles and flee for the center? No. Consider the Goldwater debacle in 1964…. [T]he leaders of the New Right learned from the defeat the lessons that all successful political movements must master: They organized. They built institutions. They dreamed up hand-grenade issues designed to shatter their enemies’ coalition. And, principles intact, they came back stronger….” – Thomas Franks, author, What’s The Matter With Kansas?
the state-level outlook:
1: Both parties will end up controlling almost exactly 3,657 state legislative seats (give or take a no more than handful after a few races’ recounts are finished). This is amazing parity…. 3,657 Republicans vs. 3,657 Democrats.
2. On November 1 st, b efore the election, Republicans had a 21-17 lead in control of state legislatures and 11 states had split control. After November 2, the GOP had a 20-19 margin over the Democrats and 10 state legislatures were split. Republicans now control 50 chambers; Democrats 47; one chamber, Iowa’s State Senate, is tied 25-25.
on framing Democratic values:
1. Bush ran as a right-winger who took strong stands on his positions…. Schwarzenegger got a roaring applause at the GOP convention: A politician who's more liberal than many Democrats with his support for stem cell research, civil unions, gay adoption rights, gun control…. But he takes strong stands on issues and can defend his views with common sense rhetoric…. – Jazz, on DailyKos
2. The [conservative] evangelical core of the Bush/Cheney electoral coalition…has both a deep and rich religious and political language with which to narrate its own problems and aspirations…. Bush knows how to connect to this base precisely because he eschews a secular and rationalistic rhetoric in favor of a language rich with moralistic, eschatological, and even apocalyptic themes. In a country where upward of 75 percent of the population believes in God and an afterlife…only fools do not avail themselves of such a diverse and vibrant rhetoric for communicating concerns around a whole host of issue…. Well, the Democratic Party leadership is such a collection of…fools…. [Conversely,] African-Americans were able to forge both an abolitionist and civil rights movement with the resources of the King James Bible and the Constitution of the United States. [This] should give Democrats some food for thought about the progressive possibilities inherent in the most widely owned and read book in this country…. ‘It's the theology, stupid!’” - Edgar Rivera Colón, John Jay College of Criminal Justice and City University of New York (CUNY).
The Bush mandate:
1. Bush received the lowest percentage of electoral votes of any incumbent running for reelection since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.
2. Bush won with the lowest percentage of the popular vote (51%)—and by the lowest margin of the popular vote (3.5 million)—of any incumbent running for reelection since Harry S. Truman (1948).
the big picture:
1. Mass consciousness, however, is not a permanent, but ever-changing, state of mind. When there is a strong and vocal left and movements arise based upon struggle, mass consciousness changes. That is certainly the lesson of the 1960s and early '70s, when the left grew, and mass consciousness also shifted to the left--with wide margins in support of…civil rights. - Sharon Smith in the Socialist Worker.
2. John Kerry won among self-described Independents and "moderates" by greater margins than George Bush won among the nation as a whole…. Our mistake would be to start blaming individuals and creating scapegoats…. [O] ur problem is conservatism itself…. If we want to win, we need to structurally alter the electorate and its ideological framework, not try and fool it with a gimmicky candidate biography and selective issue positions…. [S]imply nominating someone who is "strong on defense" or "who can compete in the South" will do nothing to alleviate the severity of this crisis. This is not always about campaigns. This is not always about…picking the most electable candidate as our nominee. Instead, this also must be about defeating conservatism itself, something conservatives long ago realized about defeating liberalism. When conservatives are 33% of the electorate, and liberals are only 21%, we start twelve points down in every campaign. The solution to this problem is not to move to the center…. The solution to this problem is not to simply energize the base so…activism and energy alone carry us over the top. Unfortunately, the debate we will see [after the election] will probably be framed by these two positions. In the end, both are unfortunately temporary and purely tactical….
We must grow liberalism….We have to…run candidates in every single race in every single district. We have to be willing to spend tens of millions of dollars…to sell liberalism. We cannot be reconciliatory, since the conservative reactionaries never have been, and never will be. This has worked to their advantage. We must recognize that this struggle is permanent, and does not only happen in campaign years, and must not only be waged against specific individuals or policies…. In 2008, we could become even more active and do even better on the ground, but still lose because we have kept shrinking. We have to grow the left wing. We have to sell liberalism. We must crush conservatism itself…. We can only win by moving the country itself to the left. - Chris Bowers, principal contributor, MyDD
The Youth Vote:
1. At least 20.9 million Americans under the age of 30 voted in 2004, an increase of 4.6 million over 2000; but they constituted the same percentage of all voters in 2004 and 2000, about 18%.
2. However, young people voted at a much higher rate in battleground states, where there was greater voter outreach and political advertising. In the ten most contested states, youth turnout was 64%, up 13% from 2000. So, the evidence suggests that youth do participate when they are asked to do so, and almost always to the benefit of Democratic candidates.
Key realitIes:
1. “Throughout our country’s history, abolitionists, suffragists, [and others]…challenged the majority of Americans to take off their blinders. Each succeeded one way or another, but not overnight, and certainly not without serious setbacks.” – Meteor Blades, principal contributor, DailyKos.
2. “The vast majority of people in this country don't think of themselves as 'red people' or 'blue people.’ They think of themselves as just normal people living their lives." - Doug Sosnik, former Clinton White House political director.
Forward this to others you know who want to renew American opportunity and equality. We must help inform each other with facts, so together we can make our elected leaders recommit themselves to liberty and freedom—the bedrock principles of the Declaration of Independence.